2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.5
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 544.6 league average
+18.5 at this ground — averages 21.3 there (9 gm)
vs them: averages 35.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 30 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o1.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Josiahvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
3.5
1
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Josiah 3.5/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Josiah 0.0/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
1
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Josiah 0.9/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Josiah 0.0/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Josiah 0.0/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Josiah 0.0/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
75
10.3
Josiah 0.0/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
1
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Josiah 1.1/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Josiah3.5
1
NQL1785.8
75
Josiah 3.5/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Josiah0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium21.3(9)+4.9
Everywhere else16.4(22)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)9.0(3)-9.8
Dry games18.8(28)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-0.8
Avg diff %
-48%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDSam Verrills1.72+19%
07-30SYDReece Foley0.80-100%
07-25BRIBen Hunt2.60-100%
07-19DOLSebastian Su'a2.20-100%
07-19DOLJohn Fineanganofo0.000%
07-12MANNicholas Lenaz0.000%
06-27PENBilly Scott1.50-100%
06-21WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josiah's. Computed from this app's own records.