19.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 20.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 18.0
+2.6 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 544.6 league average
−9.8 at this ground — averages 9.6 there (14 gm)
vs them: averages 8.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o20.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Aramavs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
57.9
34
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Arama 57.9/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
73
Tackle Breaksfavorable
94
36.5
Arama 2.3/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.3
81
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Arama 28.3/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
78
Triesfavorable
81
4.8
Arama 0.3/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Arama 0.0/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
76
Line Breaksfavorable
75
6.0
Arama 0.4/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
81
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Arama 0.8/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.3
38
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Arama 20.3/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Arama57.9
34
NQL1785.8
75
Arama 57.9/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Arama2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium9.6(14)-6.0
Everywhere else15.6(21)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)20.0(3)+7.4
Dry games12.6(32)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+5.3
Avg diff %
+26%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJayden Campbell21.734+57%
08-06GLDCooper Bai22.917-26%
07-30SYDConnor Watson21.024+15%
07-30SYDReece Robson17.730+70%
07-30SYDSalesi Foketi21.449+130%
07-30SYDCody Ramsey17.417-2%
07-25BRIEzra Mam22.136+63%
07-25BRIGrant Anderson20.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±3.0 of Arama's. Computed from this app's own records.