6.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.1 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.3
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186/game vs a 186.3 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 7.3 there (39 gm)
vs them: averages 7.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o7.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Chrisvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
60.8
36
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Chris 60.8/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
39
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Chris 1.0/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.2
83
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Chris 29.2/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Chris 0.1/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
45
Try Assistsneutral
88
4.1
Chris 0.1/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Chris 0.1/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
17
Offloadsneutral
75
10.3
Chris 0.1/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
23.8
45
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Chris 23.8/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Chris60.8
36
NQL1785.8
75
Chris 60.8/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Chris1.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Runs
186.0per game · league avg 186.3
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium7.3(39)+1.5
Everywhere else5.8(70)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.4(8)-1.0
Dry games6.4(101)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDArama Hau6.70-100%
08-06GLDKlese Haas7.68+5%
08-06GLDCooper Bai7.42-73%
07-30SYDCody Ramsey7.911+39%
07-30SYDDaly Cherry-Evans8.210+23%
07-30SYDConnor Watson7.68+6%
07-30SYDSalesi Foketi5.911+88%
07-25BRIPreston Riki8.05-37%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Chris's. Computed from this app's own records.