8.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 1785.8/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+23.5 at this ground — averages 31.9 there (35 gm)
vs them: averages 25.6 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 1: 36 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o9.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Samvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
9.5
4
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Sam 9.5/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
4
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
Sam 0.1/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.4
60
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Sam 19.4/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Triesneutral
81
4.8
Sam 0.1/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
70
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
Sam 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Line Breaksneutral
75
6.0
Sam 0.1/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
17
Offloadsneutral
75
10.3
Sam 0.1/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
2
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Sam 1.7/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.6
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Sam9.5
4
NQL1785.8
75
Sam 9.5/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Sam0.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Run Metres
1785.8per game · league avg 1687.8
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium31.9(35)+2.4
Everywhere else29.5(66)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)25.0(7)-5.7
Dry games30.7(94)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Run Metres
Avg diff
-5.7
Avg diff %
-53%
Hit rate
0/2
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
04-10BRIBlake Mozer9.69-6%
03-14WSTTristan Hope10.70-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.