9.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186/game vs a 185.9 league average
+2.8 at this ground — averages 12.5 there (44 gm)
vs them: averages 10.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
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Splits · o9.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaydenvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
108.7
67
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
Jayden 108.7/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksfavorable
94
36.5
Jayden 2.5/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.9
55
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
Jayden 17.9/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Triesfavorable
81
4.8
Jayden 0.5/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
92
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
Jayden 0.6/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
86
Line Breaksfavorable
81
6.0
Jayden 0.6/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
80
Offloadsfavorable
75
10.3
Jayden 0.8/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.7
40
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
Jayden 21.7/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jayden108.7
67
NQL1785.8
75
Jayden 108.7/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Jayden2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Runs
186.0per game · league avg 185.9
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium12.5(44)+0.3
Everywhere else12.2(52)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)15.9(7)+3.8
Dry games12.1(89)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-1%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDAJ Brimson9.313+40%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika10.711+3%
08-06GLDKurtis Morrin8.79+4%
07-30SYDDaly Cherry-Evans8.210+23%
07-30SYDSpencer Leniu8.98-10%
07-30SYDHugo Savala9.49-4%
07-25BRIGrant Anderson8.50-100%
07-25BRIEzra Mam9.413+38%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.