9.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.3 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.5
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186/game vs a 186.3 league average
+4.4 at this ground — averages 13.8 there (50 gm)
vs them: averages 10.9 over 12 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
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Splits · o9.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
AJvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game
93.3
58
Run Metresneutral
75
1785.8
AJ 93.3/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.9
66
Tackle Breaksneutral
94
36.5
AJ 1.9/game
NQL concedes 36.5/game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.9
49
Tacklesunfavorable
13
333.0
AJ 15.9/game
NQL concedes 333.0/game · league avg 344.9
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
55
Triesneutral
81
4.8
AJ 0.2/game
NQL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.1
#4 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
78
Try Assistsfavorable
88
4.1
AJ 0.3/game
NQL concedes 4.1/game · league avg 3.5
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
70
Line Breaksfavorable
75
6.0
AJ 0.3/game
NQL concedes 6.0/game · league avg 5.1
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
54
Offloadsneutral
75
10.3
AJ 0.4/game
NQL concedes 10.3/game · league avg 9.8
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
26.9
50
Post Contact Metresneutral
100
618.4
AJ 26.9/game
NQL concedes 618.4/game · league avg 545.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
AJ93.3
58
NQL1785.8
75
AJ 93.3/game
NQL concedes 1785.8/game · league avg 1690.9
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
AJ1.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Runs
186.0per game · league avg 186.3
#8 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At Cbus Super Stadium13.8(50)+1.9
Everywhere else11.9(58)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.7(10)-1.2
Dry games12.9(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Runs
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+2%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDKurtis Morrin8.79+4%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell9.49-5%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika10.711+3%
07-30SYDCody Ramsey7.911+39%
07-30SYDHugo Savala9.49-4%
07-30SYDSpencer Leniu8.98-10%
07-30SYDDaly Cherry-Evans8.210+23%
07-25BRIPreston Riki8.05-37%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of AJ's. Computed from this app's own records.