116.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 112.4 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 123.5
−7.7 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
−16.8 at this ground — averages 100 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 124.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o112.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Alofianavs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
112.4
69
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Alofiana 112.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.6
79
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Alofiana 2.6/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.6
15
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Alofiana 4.6/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
98
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Alofiana 0.9/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
62
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Alofiana 0.1/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
99
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Alofiana 1.1/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Alofiana 0.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.0
45
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Alofiana 24.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Alofiana112.4
69
PEN1576.6
25
Alofiana 112.4/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Alofiana2.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Go Media Stadium100.0(5)-10.7
Everywhere else110.7(68)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)145.0(3)+36.5
Dry games108.5(70)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
+15.9
Avg diff %
+13%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARAli Leiataua98.276-23%
08-07WARTanner Stowers-Smith108.91090%
08-07WARCharnze Nicoll-Klokstad128.8193+50%
08-01CBRSebastian Kris112.8108-4%
08-01CBRCorey Horsburgh115.9181+56%
08-01CBRZac Hosking97.0121+25%
07-23PARJosh Addo-Carr128.6113-12%
07-23PARJack Williams114.8131+14%
Similar = season average within ±16.9 of Alofiana's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5