28.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.5 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 29.8
+2.6 opponent leak — they concede 594.5/game vs a 544.6 league average
+9.7 at this ground — averages 38.1 there (20 gm)
vs them: averages 40.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Post Contact Metres
594.5per game · league avg 544.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Suncorp Stadium38.1(20)-1.1
Everywhere else39.2(93)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)41.8(12)+3.1
Dry games38.7(101)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+1%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLMax Plath28.866+129%
08-08DOLMorgan Knowles24.411-55%
08-08DOLThomas Flegler29.114-52%
08-01NEWFletcher Sharpe28.226-8%
08-01NEWMat Croker28.733+15%
07-25NQLGriffin Neame28.936+25%
07-25NQLJaxon Purdue28.718-37%
07-25NQLZac Laybutt27.425-9%
Similar = season average within ±4.1 of Francis's. Computed from this app's own records.