15.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.4 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.4
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 180.1/game vs a 186.3 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 6.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 25 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Runs
180.1per game · league avg 186.3
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium7.5(2)-2.4
Everywhere else9.9(29)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)13.0(1)+3.3
Dry games9.7(30)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Runs
Avg diff
-3.6
Avg diff %
-24%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02CROSamuel Stonestreet14.10-100%
08-02CROJesse Ramien14.215+5%
08-02CROKL Iro15.56-61%
08-02CRORonaldo Mulitalo16.613-22%
08-02CROAddin Fonua-Blake13.217+29%
08-02CROWilliam Kennedy15.412-22%
07-24MELStefano Utoikamanu13.312-9%
07-24MELJack Howarth14.613-11%
Similar = season average within ±2.3 of Jordan's. Computed from this app's own records.