18.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 18.5 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 19.0
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 15.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Allianz Stadium20.5(2)+5.8
Everywhere else14.7(49)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)20.0(1)+5.2
Dry games14.8(50)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
+5.3
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARRonald Volkman19.715-24%
08-08PARMitchell Moses17.016-6%
08-02CROKL Iro17.24-77%
07-24MELTrent Toelau15.829+83%
07-24MELTyran Wishart18.840+113%
07-24MELOryn Keeley19.238+98%
07-18CBREthan Strange20.125+25%
07-18CBRSimi Sasagi15.819+20%
Similar = season average within ±2.8 of Luca's. Computed from this app's own records.