7.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.7 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.6
+1.0 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 544.2 league average
+1.6 at this ground — averages 9.2 there (47 gm)
vs them: averages 6.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium9.2(47)+2.1
Everywhere else7.2(56)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)6.7(3)-1.5
Dry games8.2(100)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+1.0
Avg diff %
+12%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDLachlan Ilias6.30-100%
07-25BRIBilly Walters7.33-59%
07-25BRIAdam Reynolds7.319+161%
07-19DOLKodi Nikorima7.19+26%
07-19DOLBradley Schneider7.617+125%
07-12MANJake Simpkin8.112+49%
07-12MANJamal Fogarty8.73-65%
06-27PENJack Cogger6.64-40%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mitchell's. Computed from this app's own records.