54.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 55.3 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 53.5
−0.7 opponent leak — they concede 1663.5/game vs a 1686.6 league average
+5.7 at this ground — averages 60.3 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 61.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Run Metres
1663.5per game · league avg 1686.6
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Allianz Stadium60.3(4)-14.7
Everywhere else75.0(99)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)51.7(3)-23.4
Dry games75.1(100)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Run Metres
Avg diff
+18.4
Avg diff %
+33%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARTeancum Brown56.6125+121%
08-02CROOregon Kaufusi54.267+24%
08-02CROBlayke Brailey51.845-13%
07-24MELAlec MacDonald60.390+49%
07-24MELSiulagi Tuimalatu-Brown49.4109+121%
07-24MELTyran Wishart60.9119+95%
07-24MELHarry Grant55.38-86%
07-18CBRJosh Papalii55.428-49%
Similar = season average within ±8.3 of Mitchell's. Computed from this app's own records.