6.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.8 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.9
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 333/game vs a 344.7 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 6.1 there (27 gm)
vs them: averages 8.4 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 21 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tackles
333.0per game · league avg 344.7
#15 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackles
At CommBank Stadium6.1(27)-0.3
Everywhere else6.4(53)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)3.7(3)-2.8
Dry games6.4(77)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Tackles
Avg diff
-1.3
Avg diff %
-18%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJaylan De Groot4.814+193%
07-25BRIReece Walsh4.73-36%
07-25BRIJosiah Karapani4.56+33%
07-25BRILuke Gale6.50-100%
07-25BRIDeine Mariner6.13-51%
07-25BRIGrant Anderson5.40-100%
07-19DOLHamiso Tabuai-Fidow6.14-34%
07-19DOLJamayne Isaako4.32-53%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.