61.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 61.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 60.9
−4.1 opponent leak — they concede 507.7/game vs a 544.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 43.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 101 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Post Contact Metres
507.7per game · league avg 544.6
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium36.5(2)-6.1
Everywhere else42.6(78)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)36.3(3)-6.3
Dry games42.7(77)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-1%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARBrian Kelly60.376+26%
08-02CROAddin Fonua-Blake58.160+3%
07-24MELStefano Utoikamanu53.663+18%
07-18CBRSimi Sasagi56.673+29%
07-18CBRMatthew Timoko52.630-43%
07-12NEWGreg Marzhew61.630-51%
07-03PENBrian To'o65.287+34%
07-03PENDylan Edwards56.645-21%
Similar = season average within ±9.2 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.