18.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 18.6 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 18.1
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 181.1/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 15.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Runs
181.1per game · league avg 185.9
#14 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium16.5(2)+2.6
Everywhere else13.9(78)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)13.7(3)-0.3
Dry games14.0(77)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Runs
Avg diff
-1.1
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARBrian Kelly18.118-1%
08-08PARIsaiah Iongi18.88-57%
08-08PARJordan Samrani15.821+33%
08-02CROSione Katoa19.114-27%
08-02CRORonaldo Mulitalo16.513-21%
07-24MELSualauvi Faalogo19.924+21%
07-18CBRHudson Young16.311-32%
07-18CBRSimi Sasagi17.424+38%
Similar = season average within ±2.8 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.