• 107.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 101.9 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 116.0
• −11.9 opponent leak — they concede 1504.1/game vs a 1690.9 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 65.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.