Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
54.1+10.6 vs your line
47.6 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
+4.6 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+1.9 at this ground — averages 49.5 there (42 gm)
vs them: averages 86.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o43.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 15.7°C☂ 0.9mm (77%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Brodievs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
43.3
23
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Brodie 43.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.3
49
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Brodie 1.3/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
11.0
33
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Brodie 11.0/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Brodie 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Brodie 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Brodie 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
49
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Brodie 0.3/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.0
36
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Brodie 19.0/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Brodie43.3
23
GLD1851.3
94
Brodie 43.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Brodie1.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium49.5(42)+0.8
Everywhere else48.7(53)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)62.2(10)+14.7
Dry games47.5(85)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+16.5
Avg diff %
+38%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLKai O'Donnell46.182+78%
08-06NQLSam McIntyre40.50-100%
08-01WARChanel Harris-Tavita41.9134+219%
08-01WARWayde Egan49.785+71%
08-01WARRiley Price40.0400%
07-26SGIKyle Flanagan37.962+64%
07-26SGIJosh Kerr49.632-36%
07-19MANJosh Feledy44.447+6%
Similar = season average within ±6.5 of Brodie's. Computed from this app's own records.