9.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.2 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.0
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 195.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
+3.3 at this ground — averages 12.4 there (21 gm)
vs them: averages 6.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o9.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Kaivs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
72.1
42
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Kai 72.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
52
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Kai 1.5/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
35.3
92
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Kai 35.3/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Triesfavorable
75
4.8
Kai 0.3/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Try Assistsfavorable
75
4.0
Kai 0.3/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
36
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Kai 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
98
Offloadsfavorable
88
11.2
Kai 2.3/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.0
53
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Kai 28.0/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Kai72.1
42
GLD1851.3
94
Kai 72.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Kai1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Runs
195.2per game · league avg 185.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At McDonald Jones Stadium12.4(21)+1.9
Everywhere else10.6(35)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)11.9(9)+0.7
Dry games11.1(47)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Runs
Avg diff
+1.6
Avg diff %
+17%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJake Clifford8.07-12%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt10.411+6%
08-06NQLReuben Cotter8.77-20%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame8.56-29%
08-01WARJacob Laban8.315+81%
08-01WARKurt Capewell9.812+22%
08-01WARAli Leiataua9.813+33%
08-01WARLeka Halasima9.515+57%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Kai's. Computed from this app's own records.