46.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 45.1 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 47.3
−5.8 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 31.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 12 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 544.2
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Allianz Stadium52.0(1)+15.9
Everywhere else36.1(96)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)32.5(10)-4.2
Dry games36.7(87)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-14.5
Avg diff %
-35%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYSitili Tupouniua39.412-70%
08-07CBYEnari Tuala48.334-30%
08-07CBYMax King45.823-50%
08-07CBYStephen Crichton38.88-79%
08-07CBYMatt Burton42.845+5%
08-07CBYConnor Tracey40.331-23%
07-30NQLHeilum Luki38.634-12%
07-30NQLJeremiah Nanai41.933-21%
Similar = season average within ±6.8 of Leo's. Computed from this app's own records.