• 1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
• +4.5 at this ground — averages 6.2 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.