• 4.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.5 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.4
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 180.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −1.0 at this ground — averages 3.8 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 9.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.