• 35.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 33.1 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 39.7
• −3.1 opponent leak — they concede 1543/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 71.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 132 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.