35.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 36.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 35.0
+2.1 opponent leak — they concede 1785.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
−0.4 at this ground — averages 35.5 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 49.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Run Metres
1785.8per game · league avg 1686.6
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At CommBank Stadium35.5(19)+10.9
Everywhere else24.5(36)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)29.8(4)+1.6
Dry games28.2(51)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Run Metres
Avg diff
+15.3
Avg diff %
+38%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDJosh Patston36.966+79%
08-06GLDOliver Pascoe41.131-25%
08-06GLDJaylan De Groot39.0140+259%
08-06GLDLachlan Ilias32.70-100%
07-25BRIBilly Walters38.08-79%
07-25BRIVa'a Semu41.448+16%
07-19DOLBradley Schneider35.367+90%
07-12MANSimione Laiafi40.667+65%
Similar = season average within ±5.5 of Tallyn's. Computed from this app's own records.