19.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 23.8 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.1
+1.9 opponent leak — they concede 598.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 11: 54 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Post Contact Metres
598.3per game · league avg 544.2
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium12.3(3)-4.6
Everywhere else16.9(26)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-17.0
Dry games17.0(28)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+7.5
Avg diff %
+31%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROBriton Nikora23.735+47%
08-09CROMawene Hiroti24.354+123%
08-09CROOregon Kaufusi20.835+68%
08-09CROBilly Burns26.942+56%
07-31DOLMorgan Knowles24.425+3%
07-31DOLRay Stone23.422-6%
07-26GLDJayden Campbell21.72-91%
07-26GLDArama Hau20.330+48%
Similar = season average within ±3.6 of Heath's. Computed from this app's own records.