77.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 79.4 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 74.3
−1.1 opponent leak — they concede 1663.5/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 69.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 175 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Run Metres
1663.5per game · league avg 1686.6
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Allianz Stadium48.5(2)-28.6
Everywhere else77.1(24)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)73.0(1)-2.0
Dry games75.0(25)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Run Metres
Avg diff
+8.7
Avg diff %
+13%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARLuca Moretti72.488+21%
08-08PARRonald Volkman72.594+30%
08-08PARSaxon Pryke77.5125+61%
08-02CROBilly Burns74.626-65%
08-02CROThomas Hazelton86.587+1%
08-02CROBriton Nikora68.7114+66%
08-02CROCameron McInnes79.2122+54%
08-02CROSiosifa Talakai86.131-64%
Similar = season average within ±11.9 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.