• 37.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 37.6 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 37.6
• +2.2 opponent leak — they concede 1785.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −21.8 at this ground — averages 15.8 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 119.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 119 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.