• 7.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.3 (4 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.5
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 180.1/game vs a 186.3 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 6.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 25: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.