26.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.9 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 26.7
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 351.8/game vs a 344.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 26.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Tackles
351.8per game · league avg 344.9
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Allianz Stadium25.3(3)+2.2
Everywhere else23.2(88)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)26.0(2)+2.8
Dry games23.2(89)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Tackles
Avg diff
-5.8
Avg diff %
-23%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08PARJunior Paulo23.118-22%
08-08PARJack De Belin22.718-21%
08-08PARTallyn Da Silva27.413-52%
08-08PARSaxon Pryke27.330+10%
08-08PARRyley Smith28.027-4%
08-02CROAddin Fonua-Blake24.017-29%
08-02CROThomas Hazelton24.618-27%
08-02CROBilly Burns28.718-37%
Similar = season average within ±3.9 of Kelma's. Computed from this app's own records.