45.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 47.1 (8 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 44.0
+6.3 opponent leak — they concede 618.4/game vs a 544.2 league average
−6.0 at this ground — averages 39.9 there (50 gm)
vs them: averages 43.7 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Post Contact Metres
618.4per game · league avg 544.2
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium39.9(50)+0.7
Everywhere else39.2(61)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)38.0(2)-1.6
Dry games39.6(109)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+2.0
Avg diff %
+5%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDBeau Fermor50.957+12%
08-06GLDKeano Kini46.142-9%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia44.246+4%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika40.147+17%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita45.369+52%
07-30SYDJames Tedesco47.211-77%
07-30SYDNat Butcher45.772+57%
07-30SYDSiua Wong49.541-17%
Similar = season average within ±7.1 of Will's. Computed from this app's own records.