Only 2 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
2.4+1.9 vs your line
2.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
+0.3 at this ground — averages 2.5 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 0.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lazarusvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Lazarus0.0
0
PEN1576.6
25
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Lazarus0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park2.5(6)-0.5
Everywhere else3.0(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games2.8(16)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
+0.4
Avg diff %
+66%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARMorgan Gannon0.31+300%
08-01CBRJoe Roddy1.10-100%
06-20GLDSam Verrills1.42+45%
06-20GLDJett Liu1.21-17%
06-20GLDAdam Christensen0.60-100%
06-07WSTCharlie Murray1.06+500%
05-31WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
05-31WARLuke Hanson1.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Lazarus's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5