Only 2 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
23.4+22.9 vs your line
21.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 2 this season, too few to blend
−1.4 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+3.6 at this ground — averages 24.8 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 6.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.9°C☂ 0mm (32%)🌬 13.2 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lazarusvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
0.0
0
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Lazarus0.0
0
PEN1576.6
25
Lazarus 0.0/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Lazarus0.0
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Run Metres
1576.6per game · league avg 1687.8
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At AAMI Park24.8(6)-2.9
Everywhere else27.7(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games26.6(16)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Run Metres
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-20%
Hit rate
0/5
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
05-31WARKayliss Fatialofa0.000%
04-26NEWKyle McCarthy0.000%
04-26NEWAsu Kepaoa0.000%
04-09CBYJake Turpin0.60-100%
03-14CROChris Vea'ila0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Lazarus's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry119.5