46.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 46.1 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 46.1
+4.5 opponent leak — they concede 1851.3/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 43.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o46.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Kaivs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
46.1
25
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Kai 46.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
9
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Kai 0.2/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.4
48
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Kai 15.4/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Kai 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Kai 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Kai 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Kai 0.0/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.6
37
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Kai 19.6/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Kai46.1
25
GLD1851.3
94
Kai 46.1/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Kai0.2
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Run Metres
1851.3per game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium43.3(3)+9.4
Everywhere else34.0(32)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)54.0(3)+21.0
Dry games33.0(32)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs GLD · Run Metres
Avg diff
+9.4
Avg diff %
+21%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLMatthew Lodge50.70-100%
08-06NQLSam McIntyre40.50-100%
08-01WARWayde Egan49.785+71%
08-01WARChanel Harris-Tavita41.9134+219%
08-01WARRiley Price40.0400%
07-26SGIJosh Kerr47.232-32%
07-26SGIDaniel Atkinson48.139-19%
07-19MANJoey Walsh50.7114+125%
Similar = season average within ±6.9 of Kai's. Computed from this app's own records.