13.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.6
+1.5 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.6 league average
+2.8 at this ground — averages 15.8 there (20 gm)
vs them: averages 21.1 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 23 · 2026-08-06 19:50☁ 15.3°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 8.3 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Samvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
40.5
21
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Sam 40.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
29
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Sam 0.7/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.5
61
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Sam 19.5/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Sam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Sam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Sam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Sam 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.8
29
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Sam 14.8/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Sam40.5
21
GLD1851.3
94
Sam 40.5/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Sam0.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.6
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Cbus Super Stadium15.8(20)-7.0
Everywhere else22.9(78)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)19.0(5)-2.6
Dry games21.6(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+4.2
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJake Clifford15.110-34%
08-01WARWayde Egan12.627+115%
08-01WARTe Maire Martin15.910-37%
08-01WARRiley Price15.0150%
07-26SGIJacob Halangahu16.439+138%
07-26SGIDamien Cook14.110-29%
07-12MELSiulagi Tuimalatu-Brown14.635+139%
07-12MELJahrome Hughes16.37-57%
Similar = season average within ±2.2 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.