35.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 40.5 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 27.9
+2.6 opponent leak — they concede 1810.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 54.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Run Metres
1810.8per game · league avg 1686.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At CommBank Stadium63.3(3)+3.5
Everywhere else59.8(95)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)50.4(5)-10.0
Dry games60.4(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Run Metres
Avg diff
-8.7
Avg diff %
-21%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUJamie Humphreys39.80-100%
07-11SYDTommy Talau45.80-100%
07-05MANSimione Laiafi40.661+50%
07-05MANJosh Feledy44.423-48%
06-25SOUJamie Humphreys39.876+91%
06-25SOUJohn Radel41.70-100%
06-25SOUDayne Jennings36.821-43%
06-13CBREthan Sanders45.984+83%
Similar = season average within ±6.1 of Sam's. Computed from this app's own records.