5.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 181.2/game vs a 185.9 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 5.9 there (8 gm)
vs them: averages 6.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▲projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CBY concede · Runs
181.2per game · league avg 185.9
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium5.9(8)-0.6
Everywhere else6.5(125)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)5.1(8)-1.4
Dry games6.5(125)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CBY · Runs
Avg diff
+0.9
Avg diff %
+11%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07SYDSalesi Foketi5.98+37%
08-07SYDEgan Butcher4.90-100%
08-07SYDTommy Talau5.10-100%
07-31MELSiulagi Tuimalatu-Brown6.87+2%
07-31MELTyran Wishart6.610+52%
07-31MELAngus Hinchey4.37+65%
07-31MELManaia Waitere5.88+37%
07-31MELHayden Watson6.713+95%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Reece's. Computed from this app's own records.