• 55.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 55.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 54.5
• −3.6 opponent leak — they concede 1576.6/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +10.2 at this ground — averages 65.3 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 56.3 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.