16.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.2
+0.6 opponent leak — they concede 192.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 13.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Runs
192.6per game · league avg 185.9
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At CommBank Stadium15.5(2)+1.3
Everywhere else14.2(112)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)13.0(6)-1.3
Dry games14.3(108)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Runs
Avg diff
+1.1
Avg diff %
+7%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUTallis Duncan14.213-8%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi17.718+2%
08-08SOUDavid Fifita16.116-1%
08-08SOUMatthew Dufty16.716-4%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva14.018+29%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou14.315+5%
08-02WSTJahream Bula17.815-16%
08-02WSTTerrell May17.126+52%
Similar = season average within ±2.5 of Murray's. Computed from this app's own records.