26.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 24.7 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 28.5
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
+7.4 at this ground — averages 33.6 there (46 gm)
vs them: averages 33.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o24.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ethanvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
72.2
43
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Ethan 72.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
38
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Ethan 0.9/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
56
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Ethan 18.4/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
44
4.0
Ethan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Ethan 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Ethan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
39
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Ethan 0.2/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.7
47
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Ethan 24.7/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ethan72.2
43
DOL1652.5
38
Ethan 72.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ethan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Post Contact Metres
539.6per game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park33.6(46)+7.2
Everywhere else26.4(79)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)26.9(9)-2.3
Dry games29.2(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-3.8
Avg diff %
-17%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIReece Walsh25.718-30%
08-08BRIBen Talty24.211-54%
08-08BRIEzra Mam22.114-37%
07-31SGIEmre Guler22.624+6%
07-19NQLScott Drinkwater23.13-87%
07-19NQLZac Laybutt27.429+6%
07-11CROBilly Burns26.928+4%
07-11CROCameron McInnes27.542+53%
Similar = season average within ±3.7 of Ethan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5