75.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 72.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 79.5
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 1679.1/game vs a 1686.6 league average
+3.3 wet forecast — averages 78.4 in the wet (9 gm)
vs them: averages 77.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼wet ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o72.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ethanvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
72.2
43
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Ethan 72.2/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
38
Tackle Breaksneutral
44
32.8
Ethan 0.9/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.8
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
56
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Ethan 18.4/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Ethan 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Ethan 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Ethan 0.1/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
39
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Ethan 0.2/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.7
47
Post Contact Metresneutral
69
563.0
Ethan 24.7/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.2
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ethan72.2
43
MEL1679.1
50
Ethan 72.2/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Ethan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Run Metres
1679.1per game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else81.0(125)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)78.4(9)-2.8
Dry games81.2(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Run Metres
Avg diff
+12.7
Avg diff %
+15%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYHarry Hayes64.222-66%
07-24SOUCody Walker66.498+48%
07-24SOULachlan Hubner76.157-25%
07-24SOULatrell Siegwalt72.294+30%
07-17SYDConnor Watson64.772+11%
07-17SYDHugo Savala79.395+20%
07-17SYDCody Ramsey82.0192+134%
07-12GLDKurtis Morrin71.948-33%
Similar = season average within ±10.8 of Ethan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5