7.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.6
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
+3.4 at this ground — averages 10.4 there (49 gm)
vs them: averages 8.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o6.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jakevs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
54.9
32
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Jake 54.9/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
20
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Jake 0.5/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
33.4
89
Tacklesfavorable
69
351.7
Jake 33.4/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
26
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Jake 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Jake 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Jake 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Jake 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
19.8
37
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Jake 19.8/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jake54.9
32
DOL1652.5
38
Jake 54.9/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jake0.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park10.4(49)+0.1
Everywhere else10.4(73)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.1(11)-0.4
Dry games10.4(111)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-2.3
Avg diff %
-29%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIJack Gosiewski7.10-100%
08-08BRIBen Talty8.13-63%
07-31SGIJosh Kerr5.49+68%
07-31SGIDaniel Atkinson6.80-100%
07-31SGIEmre Guler6.76-11%
07-31SGIKyle Flanagan5.77+22%
07-31SGIDamien Cook5.96+1%
07-19NQLCoen Hess7.54-47%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jake's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5