112.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 115.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 107.9
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 1679.1/game vs a 1686.6 league average
−34.9 wet forecast — averages 77.5 in the wet (6 gm)
vs them: averages 92.8 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼wet ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o115.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Benvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
115.4
71
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Ben 115.4/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
58
Tackle Breaksneutral
44
32.8
Ben 1.7/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.8
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
27.1
79
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Ben 27.1/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
71
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Ben 0.3/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Ben 0.2/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
76
Line Breaksfavorable
88
6.4
Ben 0.4/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.4
95
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Ben 1.4/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
44.1
81
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
563.0
Ben 44.1/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.2
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ben115.4
71
MEL1679.1
50
Ben 115.4/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Ben1.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Run Metres
1679.1per game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else77.1(95)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)77.5(6)+0.5
Dry games77.0(89)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Run Metres
Avg diff
-7.7
Avg diff %
-7%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANTaniela Paseka130.374-43%
08-08MANReuben Garrick128.183-35%
07-31CBYMatt Burton126.1135+7%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin117.6124+5%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton100.256-44%
07-31CBYMax King125.2144+15%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama121.9180+48%
07-31CBYLeo Thompson116.6108-7%
Similar = season average within ±17.3 of Ben's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5