129.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 130.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 128.4
−0.6 opponent leak — they concede 1679.1/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
+12.2 wet forecast — averages 141.8 in the wet (8 gm)
vs them: averages 107.9 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼wet ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o130.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tanielavs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
130.3
81
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Taniela 130.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
60
Tackle Breaksneutral
44
32.8
Taniela 1.8/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.8
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.6
74
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Taniela 24.6/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Taniela 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Taniela 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Line Breaksneutral
88
6.4
Taniela 0.1/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
81
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Taniela 0.8/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
59.0
96
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
563.0
Taniela 59.0/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.2
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Taniela130.3
81
MEL1679.1
50
Taniela 130.3/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Taniela1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Run Metres
1679.1per game · league avg 1686.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At HBF Park74.0(1)-45.3
Everywhere else119.3(100)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)141.8(8)+24.8
Dry games116.9(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Run Metres
Avg diff
-2.2
Avg diff %
-1%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANJason Saab135.2103-24%
08-08MANReuben Garrick128.183-35%
07-31CBYLeo Thompson116.6108-7%
07-31CBYMatt Burton126.1135+7%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama121.9180+48%
07-31CBYMax King125.2144+15%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin117.6124+5%
07-24SOUAlex Johnston135.2111-18%
Similar = season average within ±19.5 of Taniela's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5