9.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.6 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.4
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
+2.1 at this ground — averages 11.6 there (31 gm)
vs them: averages 13.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o9.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Lukevs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
80.6
50
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Luke 80.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
60
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Luke 1.7/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.7
64
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Luke 20.7/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
47
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Luke 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Luke 0.5/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
52
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Luke 0.2/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
68
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Luke 0.6/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
12.7
24
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
44
539.6
Luke 12.7/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Luke80.6
50
DOL1652.5
38
Luke 80.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Luke1.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park11.6(31)-0.9
Everywhere else12.5(91)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)9.9(8)-2.5
Dry games12.4(114)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
-6%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIBen Talty8.13-63%
08-08BRIEzra Mam9.49-4%
08-08BRIGrant Anderson8.510+17%
07-31SGIDylan Egan9.310+8%
07-31SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga10.616+50%
07-31SGILuciano Leilua9.90-100%
07-31SGITyrell Sloan10.914+29%
07-19NQLHeilum Luki10.812+12%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5