• 126.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 128.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 124.6
• −2.7 opponent leak — they concede 1652.5/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• +13.3 at this ground — averages 140 there (51 gm)
• vs them: averages 119.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 240 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 14: 231 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.