• 126.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 128.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 124.6
• −12.5 opponent leak — they concede 1519.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −49.0 at this ground — averages 77.8 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 117.5 over 11 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 240 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 14: 231 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.