40.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 39.9 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 41.0
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 539.6/game vs a 544.2 league average
−6.3 at this ground — averages 34.1 there (48 gm)
vs them: averages 28.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o39.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jasonvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
135.2
83
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Jason 135.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
54
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Jason 1.5/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.7
16
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Jason 4.7/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
93
Triesneutral
44
4.0
Jason 0.6/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
66
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Jason 0.2/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
93
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Jason 0.7/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
16
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Jason 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
39.9
75
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Jason 39.9/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jason135.2
83
DOL1652.5
38
Jason 135.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jason1.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Post Contact Metres
539.6per game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At 4 Pines Park34.1(48)+5.7
Everywhere else28.4(70)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)29.9(8)-0.9
Dry games30.8(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
-4.1
Avg diff %
-11%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIGehamat Shibasaki36.47-81%
08-08BRIPatrick Carrigan44.129-34%
08-08BRIKotoni Staggs39.234-13%
08-08BRIDeine Mariner44.224-46%
07-31SGILoko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga41.248+17%
07-31SGIClinton Gutherson38.143+13%
07-31SGIValentine Holmes40.952+27%
07-31SGIMoses Suli43.858+32%
Similar = season average within ±6.0 of Jason's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown28.5