2.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 336.7/game vs a 344.7 league average
+0.4 wet forecast — averages 2.9 in the wet (7 gm)
vs them: averages 8.6 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
159.6
92
Run Metresneutral
50
1679.1
Tom 159.6/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
86
Tackle Breaksneutral
50
32.8
Tom 3.1/game
MEL concedes 32.8/game · league avg 32.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
6
Tacklesunfavorable
25
336.7
Tom 2.5/game
MEL concedes 336.7/game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
93
Triesneutral
56
4.5
Tom 0.6/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
95
Try Assistsfavorable
63
3.6
Tom 0.7/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
79
Line Breaksfavorable
88
6.4
Tom 0.5/game
MEL concedes 6.4/game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
95
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Tom 1.5/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.3
71
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
563.0
Tom 38.3/game
MEL concedes 563.0/game · league avg 544.6
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tom159.6
92
MEL1679.1
50
Tom 159.6/game
MEL concedes 1679.1/game · league avg 1687.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Tom3.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tackles
336.7per game · league avg 344.7
#13 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Tackles
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else4.6(85)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)2.9(7)-1.9
Dry games4.8(78)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Tackles
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+36%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MANBlake Wilson1.32+60%
08-08MANNicholas Lenaz3.50-100%
07-31CBYJonathan Sua2.80-100%
07-31CBYConnor Tracey2.87+147%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama2.75+84%
07-24SOUMatthew Dufty1.94+108%
07-17SYDDaniel Tupou1.74+136%
07-17SYDCody Ramsey2.01-50%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown19.5