• 187.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 185.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 191.9
• +16.8 opponent leak — they concede 1838.8/game vs a 1687.8 league average
• −46.8 at this ground — averages 141.1 there (57 gm)
• vs them: averages 171.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 320 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.