56.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 56.0 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 56.3
+5.1 opponent leak — they concede 594.5/game vs a 544.6 league average
−3.1 at this ground — averages 53 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 50.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 23 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Post Contact Metres
594.5per game · league avg 544.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At Suncorp Stadium53.0(12)+0.6
Everywhere else52.4(86)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)60.0(7)+8.1
Dry games51.9(91)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs BRI · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+3.2
Avg diff %
+4%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLHerbie Farnworth56.951-10%
08-08DOLSelwyn Cobbo49.140-19%
08-08DOLJack Bostock52.869+31%
08-08DOLJamayne Isaako49.033-33%
08-01NEWGreg Marzhew61.670+14%
07-25NQLBraidon Burns63.875+18%
07-25NQLJason Taumalolo61.095+56%
07-25NQLTom Chester53.540-25%
Similar = season average within ±8.4 of Mitchell's. Computed from this app's own records.