10.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.7
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 186.3 league average
−1.1 at this ground — averages 9.4 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 9.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o9.5
Game conditionsGo Media Stadium · AucklandRound 23 · 2026-08-07 20:00☁ 7.9°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 0.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Alivs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
98.2
60
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Ali 98.2/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1690.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.3
88
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
31
31.4
Ali 3.3/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.7
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
14.1
43
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Ali 14.1/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
67
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Ali 0.2/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.1
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
79
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Ali 0.3/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
78
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
52
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.1
Ali 0.4/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.8
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
29.1
55
Post Contact Metresneutral
50
548.9
Ali 29.1/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 545.7
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Ali98.2
60
PEN1576.6
25
Ali 98.2/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1690.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ali3.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 186.3
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At Go Media Stadium9.4(12)-0.7
Everywhere else10.1(21)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games9.8(33)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
+2.7
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07WARKurt Capewell9.810+2%
08-07WARLeka Halasima9.521+120%
08-07WARJacob Laban8.311+33%
08-01CBRJed Stuart9.414+49%
08-01CBREthan Strange8.911+24%
08-01CBRAta Mariota9.610+5%
07-23PARKelma Tuilagi9.711+13%
07-23PARDylan Walker9.18-12%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ali's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5